Forecast and analysis of China's soda ash market o

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Prediction and analysis of the output of China's soda ash market this year

in 2010, the capacity of soda ash continued to increase with the expected strengthening of domestic economic recovery, and the overall operating level of the industry was steadily improved. From January to November 2010, the cumulative output of soda ash in China was 18.703 million tons, an increase of 6.0% over the same period last year. However, the overall recovery of the downstream industry is slow, and its total amount increases slowly. In addition, the rise trend of international trade protectionism is obvious. China's soda ash exports are significantly limited, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic soda ash market continues to expand. The soda ash industry will face more severe challenges in 2011

policy factors continue to affect

the orientation of macroeconomic policy in 2011 is to be positive, prudent and flexible, put the overall level of price stability in a more prominent position, and effectively enhance the coordination, sustainability and endogenous driving force of economic development. At the same time of the adjustment of the national macroeconomic policy and economic structure, structural adjustment will still be one of the important contents, and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction during the 12th Five Year Plan is still heavy. The solid progress of binding quantitative indicators to control greenhouse gas emissions, the elimination of backward production capacity and energy conservation and emission reduction policies will have a sustained impact on the development of soda ash enterprises. In addition, the soda ash industry will continue to implement the "soda ash industry access system" and continue to improve the overall strength of the industry

relatively stable

the amount of glass industry accounts for half of the total amount of soda ash. In 2010, the domestic flat-panel and daily-use glass industry showed a rapid upward momentum relying on the international economic recovery, and the glass output increased rapidly. In 2011, the glass industry still maintained a strong growth momentum. The Ministry of industry and information technology recently issued the announcement of "access conditions for daily glass industry", which puts forward clear requirements for projects of new construction or reconstruction and expansion of glass furnaces. The access conditions will be implemented from March 1, 2011. Although the state has been using policy means to control the growth rate of glass and intervene to suppress its downstream real estate market to curb the rapid rise of production capacity, the construction of affordable housing in the future is likely to exceed market expectations, that is, the construction of affordable housing is expected to reverse the impact of the market on real estate regulation, and with the deepening of affordable housing policies, its proportion will further increase in the next few years, Therefore, the downstream of domestic soda ash in 2011 will still be dominated by the glass industry

the export situation is grim

international trade protectionism is on the rise. China's massive export of soda ash has led India and other countries to restrict China's export of soda ash. On August 20, 2010, at the request of the Indian alkali Manufacturers Association (amai), the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India filed an anti-dumping investigation on soda ash originating in China. The products involved were soda ash, including heavy and light soda ash. At present, India is imposing a special bond of 16% on this product, which will expire in April 2011. If the Indian side determines that the dumping behavior is established, in addition, in the coming period of time, the Chinese enterprises involved in the case are likely to be forced to withdraw from the Indian soda ash market, and the export volume will decline significantly. At the same time, in order to stimulate the domestic economic recovery, the United States also began to take price reduction measures in the Asian and South American markets to compete fully with Chinese soda ash. Solvay 1 Development history of automotive engine oil pan materials and corresponding processes: the company also focuses on the competition for the Asian soda ash market in 2011, and the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy continues to increase the appreciation pressure of the RMB. The industry predicts that China will make breakthroughs in pure measurement, control, computer utilization, full digitalization and other fields in 2011, and the alkali export situation will worsen, and the export proportion will continue to decline, making it difficult to alleviate the domestic excess pressure

cost pressure increases

in 2011, the cost prices of raw materials such as raw salt, coal, electricity and natural gas will continue to rise with the amplification of domestic inflationary pressure, and the upward momentum is difficult to slow down significantly. As the cost of basic raw materials continues to rise, the cost pressure of soda ash enterprises will further increase, and domestic soda ash enterprises will likely remain on the edge of cost line and loss, which is very detrimental to the development of domestic soda ash industry in the future. In the future, the international crude oil price will fluctuate, and the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States will inevitably lead to the rise of global basic commodity prices. In the future, the domestic land and sea transportation prices will continue to rise, and the transportation costs of enterprises will increase, which is not conducive to the digestion of enterprise sources of goods and the rapid return of funds

from the perspective of the international economic environment, China's economy is facing many uncertainties and the economic situation is more complex. Policy factors, changes in capacity and output, and downstream and raw material costs will continue to affect the trend of domestic pure alkali. In 2011, the new capacity of domestic soda ash will continue to be released in large quantities, and the contradiction between market supply and demand will be more prominent, which will inevitably be reflected in the excess output of the supplier market. How to grasp the balance between the soda ash industry and the downstream in the future is crucial

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