Forecast and analysis of China's import and export

2022-10-15
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Forecast and analysis of China's import and export in 2011

Introduction: China's foreign trade will maintain a stable growth in 2011, but the growth rate is significantly lower than that in 2010. On the whole, imports are better than exports, and the trade surplus is basically the same as that in 2010. It is estimated that in 2011, China's total import and export volume is about 3595.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 21% year-on-year; Among them, the export volume is about 1893.5 billion US dollars

after in-depth discussion, China's foreign trade will maintain a stable growth in 2011, but the growth rate is significantly lower than that in 2010. On the whole, imports are better than exports, and the stability of trade surplus is good, which is basically the same as that in 2010. It is estimated that in 2011, China's total import and export volume is about 3595.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 21% year-on-year; Among them, the export volume was about 1893.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 20% year-on-year; The import volume was about 1701.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 22% year-on-year

in 2011, China's import and export to the United States will maintain a stable growth, but the growth rate is significantly lower than that in 2010. Symmetrical to the indication error of the experimental machine measurement system, the growth rate of U.S. import and export is slightly lower than the national total growth. It is estimated that in 2011, China's total imports and exports to the United States will be about $464.4 billion, an increase of 20.5% year-on-year; Among them, the export volume was about 340billion US dollars, an increase of 20% year-on-year; The import volume was about 12, and most of the noise was caused by the unfair design of sheet metal, with a year-on-year increase of 21%

China's import and export to the EU will maintain a stable growth in 2011, but the growth rate is significantly lower than that in 2010. The growth rate of China's import and export to the EU may be slightly higher than the national total growth. It is estimated that in 2011, China's total import and export to the EU will be about 583billion US dollars, an increase of 21.5% year-on-year; Among them, the export volume was about 376.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 21% year-on-year; The import volume was about 206.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year

in 2011, China's import and export faced strong uncertainty. Special attention should be paid to the impact of the following aspects on imports and exports: (1) the world economy as a whole was in a moderate growth stage in 2011, but there are still some risks due to the withdrawal of the large-scale economic stimulus plan. It is estimated that the world economic growth in 2011 will be lower than that in 2010, about 4.2%. This will have an impact on China's exports in 2011. (2) In 2011, China's GDP will still maintain a high growth rate, with a growth rate of about 9.7%; The business plan of the 12th Five year plan proposes the expansion of domestic demand and import, and the implementation of import promotion policies will effectively promote China's imports. (3) In 2010, China's import prices rose sharply, export prices rebounded slowly, and the terms of trade deteriorated significantly. In 2011, international bulk commodities are facing greater upward pressure. The upward trend of China's import prices is likely to continue, and China's terms of trade are likely to continue to deteriorate, which will have a certain direct and indirect impact on the trade surplus. (4) The impact of RMB appreciation pressure and trade friction on imports and exports cannot be ignored. However, on the whole, the development of China's import and export is still more opportunities than challenges

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